Tag Archives: precious metals

They Call It A Commodity Super-Cycle, What Does That Even Mean?

They Call It A Commodity Super-Cycle, What Does It Mean?

So they have come up with a new name for inflation blowing out producer prices, a commodity super-cycle. This doesn’t have to be destructive as long as you are paying attention to our rapidly changing world. My chief concern in all of this is actually the government. I fear they will come in a wreck the entire economy and control what they don’t destroy.

Commodities have been suppressed for a long time and we have already begun to see the beginning fragments of the super surge. Energy prices recently went insane crush families and small businesses alike and the elite are telling us this was just a prequel of what is to come.

By Variant Perception

There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle:

  • The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s
  • Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation
  • Commodities are generationally cheap, both compared to themselves and to other assets

It is rare in macro-forecasting when the stars align so perfectly. The combination of substantially different inflation risks, capital scarcity across several commodity sectors, and 50 years’ of underperformance compared to financial assets make commodities one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities at the moment.

Commodity Super Cycle
Chart Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

Policy Drivers of Supercycle

The convergence of fiscal and monetary policy represents a profound change to the investment landscape.  Monetary policy, hitting up against zero rates and with central banks’ balance sheets already bloated, it is becoming ever more incumbent on more fiscal policy to boost economies and inflation.

But policymakers should be careful what they wish for.  Large government deficits financed by pliant central banks have preceded every high and hyper-inflationary episode of the 20th century, from Weimar Germany in the 1920s, to Hungary in the 1940s, to Argentina in the early 1990s.  QE has lulled people into a false sense security as it was not inflationary.  QE created a supply of dollars, and relied on the banking system to “transmit” those dollars.  But a private sector still licking its wounds from the financial crisis did not want to borrow, and banks did not want to lend, which meant borrowing and therefore inflation did not sustainably pick up.

Chart Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

The pandemic accelerated a trend that was already in place: the increasing impotency of QE.  Now we need QE combined with large government deficits, which is a very different beast to QE on its own as it creates supply of money and a simultaneous demand for that money.  History shows this has much greater inflationary potential.

Changing Inflation Regimes

We are shifting from the “Lake Regime” to the “Ocean Regime”.  In the Lake Regime of the last 20-30 years, cyclical moves in inflation were contained and containable as monetary policy on its own still had teeth.  But in the Ocean Regime, where we are today, the underlying risks to inflation have shifted, and garden-variety moves in inflation have a greater likelihood of becoming unanchored and disorderly.

Source: JMW Turner

This does not mean inflation is imminent, but it does mean any short-term rise in inflation could turn into something longer-lasting and persistent.  However, the nature of inflation is that it does so abruptly and with little warning.  It is just like how Ernest Hemmingway described how one goes bankrupt, “first slowly, and then suddenly”.

What Should You Do?

This is why action must be taken today to make portfolios more inflation-resilient.  Looking to the high-inflation 1970s, commodities were the only major asset class to deliver a positive real (ie inflation adjusted) return.

Chart Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

When we combine this structurally positive backdrop for commodities with a capital-cycle analysis the case for commodities becomes more compelling.  In short, sectors suffering from capital scarcity tend to outperform as lack of competition causes returns to fall below the cost of capital.

Source: Capital Returns

Based on our analysis, several sectors in the commodity space, such as gold and silver mining, integrated oil and gas, and copper are among the most capital-scarce sectors globally.  Underinvestment in supply means these sectors will not be able to respond to the strong recovery in demand we should see this year as the world emerges from the pandemic.

When demand meets excess supply of dollars meets an investment community severely underinvested in real assets such as commodities, the only thing that can respond is price.  This is what we have been seeing, with commodities up 43% since April last year.

Commodity Super-Cycle
Chart Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

The shorter-term gains may be behind us, but the potent structural backdrop for commodities and real assets we have outlined support a much longer-lasting commodities supercycle that is beginning.

Read https://silverreportuncut.com/prices-paid-surging-historic-copper-shortage-inflation-indicators-are-firing-on-all-cylinders

Silver Shortage And Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD on the rise, $27.80 crucial resistance

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD on the rise, $27.80 is a crucial resistance

I came across this Silver price analysis from FX street and thought it was interesting, I feel the difference between the paper markets and the physical couldn’t possibly be more stressed. Essentially the world doesn’t have enough silver at current and demand is surging leaving bullion banks taking riskier moves to keep the illusion afloat.

Read: The Very Real Silver Shortage

Silver Price Analysis

NEWS | 2/15/2021 3:03:20 AM GMT | By Omkar Godbole


  • While silver trades higher, resistance at $27.80 is still intact.
  • A move above that would confirm a range breakout.

Silver trades near $27.55 at press time, representing a 0.87% gain on the day. 

While the metal is flashing green, it is yet to take out resistance at $27.80 (the previous week’s high). 

A move above that level would imply a bullish breakout from the narrowing price range signaled by the previous week’s candle, whose high and low falls well within the preceding week’s price range. 

Above $27.80, the focus would shift to $30.09, the high seen earlier this week. On the other hand, acceptance under the previous week’s low of $27.31 would put the bears in a commanding position, exposing support at $24.06, the higher low created on Jan. 6.

Daily chart

Silver Price Analysis

Trend: Bullish above $27.80

Technical levels

  1. R328.09
  2. R227.76
  3. R127.51

This Is Insane! Apex Overwhelmed With Record Silver Demand And Makes Statement On Physical Silver Shortage

This is Just insane The largest Bullion dealers are running low, they talk about fighting over the last scraps in the marketplace and soaring premiums moving forward. The Excitement stirred up into silver by Wall Street Bets is enough to strip the shelves and it’s strange to see the Silver Bull market might be what actually ends some of these bullion companies because it seems there is just no silver supply available and there is no room for any increase in demand for physical silver

APMEX Statement On Current Market Conditions:

Sold Out 12X Demand

In the last week, we have seen a dramatic shift in Silver demand from our customers. For example, the ratio of ounces sold per day was running about two times earlier in the week and closer to four times the average demand by the end of the week. Once markets closed on Friday, we saw demand hit as much as six times a typical business day and more than 12 times a normal weekend day. Combined with the extremely high demand levels, we are also seeing a surge in new customers. On Saturday alone, we added as many new customers as we usually add in a week.

Any Precious Metal dealer will take a long position in the futures market to protect against spot price exposure when the markets open. We do this because it is our goal not to take a speculative position on metal. The weekends are unique as we are not able to real-time hedge our position. We took an aggressive position this weekend, but clearly could not have predicted the volumes that were seen. We have partnerships around to world that allowed us to cover these long positions, but only to a point. Once we exceeded our comfort levels, we had little choice but to stop the sale of Silver on our website. This was a difficult decision to make and unprecedented in our history.

As we evaluate the markets, it is difficult to know where Silver’s price and demand will go in the coming day and weeks. APMEX is highly capitalized and has more than $150 million in inventory to support demand. We have made strategic decisions to procure additional metal, locking up any metal we can find in the market place. We suspect premiums will rise and rise quickly, as we are seeing significant increases in our costs, when we can even locate the metal. It is also highly likely that we will need an additional day or two to fill orders based on current order counts. The one guarantee we can make to our customers is that you will only be sold metal that is on-site, or we have procured the metal with a firm commitment date from our partners. In markets like this, we feel this is the best approach a retailer can take, as no one can predict product availability.

We want to thank our customers for their patience and understanding during these turbulent times. APMEX prides itself on best in class service and delivering on promises to our customers.

Regards,

Ken Lewis
CEO, APMEX\

Texas Bullion Depository – The New Gold Standard




The Texas Bullion Depository: Restoring the Gold Standard

WASHINGTON, May 26, 2017 – On June 12th, 2015, the Texas legislature signed into law Bill Number 483, bringing to life the Texas Bullion Depository. The state of Texas owns about $660 million dollars worth of gold bullion that is currently housed in a vault in HSBC Bank in New York City. The recently passed bill… Continue reading Texas Bullion Depository – The New Gold Standard

May 24, 2017 Brandon (H.V.N.F) Written By honestvalueneverfails.com Recently there has been a lot of discussion about bitcoin. Talk about how much you would of made had you been “invested” into it over the past week or two. Above you see an electronically created picture of a coin with the letter “B” on it representing bitcoin, a crypto-currency. That is exactly what it represents, a worthless electronically created currency portrayed by this coin. No such coin exists its just a picture. On the right you see an American Gold eagle. In this article I will explain why gold and silver will always outweigh and out-value bitcoin. Gold and Silver have been valued and sought after for thousands of years all throughout history. Both are tangible, biblical and true forms of wealth. Bitcoin on the other hand is not. If you do a little research and reading on bitcoin you will find that this electronic form of “currency” or so they claim it to be, is backed by nothing. Sounds familiar right?




I came across an article online on a website called 99bitcoins published by a man named Brian Booker(https://99bitcoins.com/what-is-bitcoin-backed-by/). The title of this article is “What is Bitcoin backed by” and right away his first sentence he informs us what it is backed by, and that is nothing. Within this article he has a paragraph I would like to talk about. “What backs a currency is irrelevant, Perception is what matters” is word for word what he has titled this specific segment. He goes on to say that the idea that commodities are necessary to back up currencies is totally irrelevant. I personally will never comprehend the logic behind his or anyone’s thought process in this matter. He even talks about bitcoin pretty much being another form of fiat currency. Well if we look at our current fiat currency backed by nothing and the situation its in, he really isn’t helping prove his point or defending his argument. He talks about hyperinflation, how much it affects our current dollar and fiat currencies around the globe but then completely contradicts himself by saying bitcoin is like a new fiat system. Hyperinflation exists because our currency system has not been backed by anything. He even states “Money has value because we believe it to have value”. Our dollar has been backed by nothing but faith, trust and a blurred perception for so long that it has lost over 80% of its value since 1971 when Nixon abolished the gold standard system. You see my point on how worthless bitcoin really is along with our failing fiat dollar backed by false trust. What never fails is honest value.




Real, constitutional, and biblical forms of wealth. Gold and Silver will always be the epitome of true forms of currency. Both are finite sources you can hold in your hand. They aren’t a form of currency you can just print out or download. You can store them securely where nobody can find them and take it away, unlike bitcoin which is a matrix form of fiat currency that can be lost in the blink of an eye. Not that there is any true value there to begin with anyway. Gold and Silver have not only held their value but increased over time as hyperinflation continues to resume within our fiat system. They are my hedge against such inflation and I encourage everyone to hedge themselves against it as well. Preserve and protect your financial future for yourself and your family. Don’t perceive something a certain way just because its meant to be perceived that way, especially bitcoin.

Thank you so much for reading for more visit www.honestvalueneverfails.com and to all my supporting subscribers I thank you as well. Please leave your thoughts and comments below I would love to hear your take on the matter. Also do not forget to subscribe to be entered in my SILVER GAW for reaching 50 subs. Once I reach 50 subscribers to this website I will make a youtube video where I randomly select from those 50 people and the winner will take home a silver half dollar of my choice from my stack along with a silver war nickel! Thank you again, and happy stacking!

What is The Federal Reserve How Did a Private Bank Seize American Economy

2910473-detail-from-the-one-dollar-bill-showing-the-pyramid-with-eye-and-the-inscription-annuit-coeptis--we-

The Federal Reserve System or simply the Fed is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act in response to a series of financial panics (particularly the panic of 1907) that showed the need for central control of the monetary system if crises are to be avoided. Over the years, events such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Great Recession during the 2000s led to the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System.

Based on the opening statement I want to draw your attention to two very important factors. Crisis was created to bring about it’s creation And Crisis is the vehicle that has granted it more power. previous attempts were made the bring the united states under private centralized control but heroic wise moves were made to end this takeover. The Banks that run the federal reserve are anything but federal. Dating back to the same institutions conquering of Europe. When the United States was formed much of the constitution was written to prevent the same type of infiltration. Like Congress has the power to issue money. the need for silver and gold as money.




But their time-tested strategy is panic and economic crisis. Which few realize that possessing such vast sums of material wealth in 1913 the Rothschilds owned much of European wealth through central bank control. It always afforded them enough capital to infiltrate the U.S. Stockmarket and institute a panic. The old modo never let a good crisis go to waste. So they presented themselves as the perfect solution. The back door meeting on Jekyll island was filled only with conspirators who knew the reason for the takeover. The Panic was to make the public accept their devious plan. The term Federal was adopted so future generations would be fooled and unaware that a private bank had used subversive tactics to take control of the issue of the peoples money in the United States.

For this very reason Crisis is guaranteed. They Gain more control through panic and have the finance and power to initiate panic at any time. There is no coincidence they have instituted the same plan in nations all over the world. it was never created for prosperity but private banks bought control of our nations money and have become the most powerful organization ever known. If they are discovered Panic will make the people forget. independent ownership of silver and gold by the citizens is the only course to rectify this situation. there will never be elected another president that will end their reign of power since the last attempt by John F Kennedy.


The inevitability of a Dollar Collapse

download (1)

From it’s beginning The powers that control the world banking cartel knew the extreme profit and control that can be generated from a freely floating fiat monetary system. The Federal reserve was never meant to bring prosperity or to stabilize the United States. It’s purpose is subjugation and extraction of goods from citizens under such a system. With an increase or decrease of the money supply and the ability for governments to operate in debt They are no longer bound to normal rules of economics.

The system has a flaw It was known by those who sought to institute it. After the Second World War, a system similar to a gold standard and sometimes described as a “gold exchange standard” was established by the Bretton Woods Agreements. Under this system, many countries fixed their exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar and central banks could exchange dollar holdings into gold at the official exchange rate of $35 per ounce; this option was not available to firms or individuals. All currencies pegged to the dollar thereby had a fixed value in terms of gold.




Starting in the 1959–1969 administration of President Charles de Gaulle and continuing until 1970, France reduced its dollar reserves, exchanging them for gold at the official exchange rate, reducing US economic influence. This, along with the fiscal strain of federal expenditures for the Vietnam War and persistent balance of payments deficits, led U.S. President Richard Nixon to end international convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold on August 15, 1971 (the “Nixon Shock”).

That says it right there. Seeing the benefit of the German government’s ability to create currency without backing and it’s ability to sustain the war was astounding and gave those in control of the printing press great power. Also holding the Gold most of Europe was afraid to lose during the War The united states found quickly they were unable to sustain the economy if the European nations extracted their gold. A devious plot was hatched to disconnect the dollar from Gold and Offer to the European nations More paper dollars which all of these countries we’re now using for gold exchange. For a very brief time this had benefits but it is an unsustainable system. By the end of the war German citizens we’re using their currency to keep their houses warm. It was worthless.




This was meant to be a temporary measure, with the gold price of the dollar and the official rate of exchanges remaining constant. Revaluing currencies was the main purpose of this plan. No official revaluation or redemption occurred. The dollar subsequently floated. In December 1971, the “Smithsonian Agreement” was reached. In this agreement, the dollar was devalued from $35 per troy ounce of gold to $38. Other countries’ currencies appreciated. However, gold convertibility did not resume. In October 1973, the price was raised to $42.22. Once again, the devaluation was insufficient. Within two weeks of the second devaluation the dollar was left to float. The $42.22 par value was made official in September 1973, long after it had been abandoned in practice. In October 1976, the government officially changed the definition of the dollar; references to gold were removed from statutes. From this point, the international monetary system was made of pure fiat money.

Now as of this post Gold is valued at $1,246.20 it is a slow bleeding of the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar And the certain consequences of this system is always a currency collapse, in this case the pain will be felt around the World. Silver and Gold as then is the only way to preserve purchasing power and it’s rise will continue until the dollar no longer is valid